Investigation of Factors Influencing the Determination of Discount Rate in the Economic Evaluation of Mineral Development Projects

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2008 Vol.45, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Investigation of Factors Influencing the Determination of Discount Rate in the Economic Evaluation of Mineral Development Projects 자원개발 프로젝트의 경제성평가에 적용하는 할인율 결정 요소에 관한 연구: 박상정
Sang-Jeong Park

31 August 2008. pp. 394-404

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Abstract

For the evaluation of mineral development projects, it is imperative to consider the risks involved in mineral exploration and development. The discount rate has a tremendous effect on the economic evaluation of mineral projects. Even when all other factors used as inputs for calculating the NPV (Net Present Value) are equal, the project under consideration may be accepted or rejected depending upon the discount rate, and the fluctuation of the NPV from positive to negative. A major problem in determining the appropriate discount rate is that it effectively depends more on subjective perception of the degree of risk or other past experience factors than on a systematic approach. Determining a realistic discount rate for a given project is therefore the most difficult and important aspect of cash-flow analysis. It should be determined with the consideration of proper technical, economic and political conditions surrounding the specific project undergoing economic evaluation.

Keywords

Discount rate

Mine

Economic Evaluation of mine

Risk Factors in mine Development

광체의 속성, 개발환경, 시장환경 그리고 사회환경에서 오는 위험 등 타 산업에 비해 훨씬 큰 위험을 가지고 있는 자원개발 사업에 투자할 때에는 그러한 속성을 제대로 반영해야 하므로, 경제성 평가시에 할인율을 조정하여 이들 위험요소들을 보상하고 있다. 자원개발 프로젝트의 경제성 평가시에 어떤 할인율을 적용 하느냐에 따라 프로젝트의 순현재가치(NPV)가 달라지고, 투자 여부가 결정되기 때문에 적정한 할인율의 결정이 경제성평가의 핵심이 되고 있으나, 대부분의 경우에 할인율이 객관적인 데이타를 바탕으로 시스템적인 방법으로 결정되는 것이 아니라 평가자의 주관적인 판단, 회사의 정책 또는 과거의 경험적인 요소들에 의존하여 결정되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 광물자원 개발프로젝트의 경제성 분석에 적용하는 할인율 결정에 영향을 미치는 요인을 속성에 따라 기술적 리스크 (매장량, 시설 완공, 생산) , 경제적 리스크(가격, 수요, 환율), 정치적 리스크(환전, 환경, 세금, 국유화)로 분류하고, 이들 요소들이 프로젝트에미치는 영향 및 리스크를 수치화하여 적정 할인율을 결정하는 작업을 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 할인율 결정방법을 적용하여 아프리카 마다가스카르에 개발중에 암바토비 니켈개발사업의 할인율을 산정한 결과, 적정할인율은 10.2%로 나타났다.

키워드

할인율

광산

광산평가

광물개발 리스크

References

Anthony C Valsamakis, Robert W Vivian, Gawie S du Toit, 2003, Risk Management, Heinemann, Santon. pp. 79-105.
David Frykman, Jakob Tolleryd, 2003, Corporate Valuation, Person Education Limited, pp. 69-90.
Kenneth F. Lane, 1988, The Economic Definition of Ore, Mining Journal Books Ltd, London, pp. 46-55.
Kim Heldman, 2005, Risk Management, Harbor Light Press, The United States of America, pp. 12-31, pp. 123-144, pp. 153-162, pp. 171-189.
Krauskopf K. B., 1979, Introduction to geochemistry, 2nd edn, McGraw-Hill, New York, p. 617.
Oded Rudawsky, 1986, Mineral economics, Elsevier, Amsterdam Oxford New York Tokyo, pp. 22-31, pp. 48-53, pp. 78-80.
Peter J. Edward S., Paul A. Bowen, 2005, Risk Management in Project Organizations, Elsevier, Sydney, Australia.
R.M. Wanless, 1983, Finance for Mine Management, Chapman and Hall, London New York. Skinner BJ., 1979, The frequency of mineral deposits, Geol Soc South Africa Trans. Annecture to 82(16): 12.
Stephen E. Harrgitay, Shi-Ming Yu, 1993, Property –Investment Decision, E & FN Spon, London, Great Britain, pp. 34-50.
Van Horne, 1986, Introduction to Financial Management, pp. 162-165, p. 303.
Whitney, 1979, Investments and Risk Analysis in the Mineral Industry, Whitney & Whitney, Inc, Nevada. pp. 2.26-2.34, pp. 5.3-5.6.
W.R.Gocht, H.Zantop, R.G.Eggert, 1988, International Mineral Economics, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 102-109, 123-124.

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering
Journal Title(Ko) :한국지구시스템공학회지
Volume : 45
No :4
Pages :394-404

[1] Anthony C Valsamakis, Robert W Vivian, Gawie S du Toit, 2003, Risk Management, Heinemann, Santon. pp. 79-105.

[2] David Frykman, Jakob Tolleryd, 2003, Corporate Valuation, Person Education Limited, pp. 69-90.

[3] Kenneth F. Lane, 1988, The Economic Definition of Ore, Mining Journal Books Ltd, London, pp. 46-55.

[4] Kim Heldman, 2005, Risk Management, Harbor Light Press, The United States of America, pp. 12-31, pp. 123-144, pp. 153-162, pp. 171-189.

[5] Krauskopf K. B., 1979, Introduction to geochemistry, 2nd edn, McGraw-Hill, New York, p. 617.

[6] Oded Rudawsky, 1986, Mineral economics, Elsevier, Amsterdam Oxford New York Tokyo, pp. 22-31, pp. 48-53, pp. 78-80.

[7] Peter J. Edward S., Paul A. Bowen, 2005, Risk Management in Project Organizations, Elsevier, Sydney, Australia.

[8] R.M. Wanless, 1983, Finance for Mine Management, Chapman and Hall, London New York. Skinner BJ., 1979, The frequency of mineral deposits, Geol Soc South Africa Trans. Annecture to 82(16): 12.

[9] Stephen E. Harrgitay, Shi-Ming Yu, 1993, Property –Investment Decision, E & FN Spon, London, Great Britain, pp. 34-50.

[10] Van Horne, 1986, Introduction to Financial Management, pp. 162-165, p. 303.

[11] Whitney, 1979, Investments and Risk Analysis in the Mineral Industry, Whitney & Whitney, Inc, Nevada. pp. 2.26-2.34, pp. 5.3-5.6.

[12] W.R.Gocht, H.Zantop, R.G.Eggert, 1988, International Mineral Economics, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 102-109, 123-124.

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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