Shale Gas Production Rate Forecasting and Type Curve Estimation by Decline Curve Analysis of Horn River Basin in Canada

doi:10.12972/ksmer.2013.50.4.502

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2013 Vol.50, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Shale Gas Production Rate Forecasting and Type Curve Estimation by Decline Curve Analysis of Horn River Basin in Canada 생산 감퇴곡선분석법을 이용한 캐나다 Horn River 분지의 셰일가스 생산량 예측 및 표준곡선 추정: 양송이 · 임종세
Song Yi Yang, Jong-Se Lim

31 August 2013. pp. 502-511

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Abstract

This paper proposes the decline curve analysis for estimating future production rate and EUR from shale gas production data of Horn river basin in Canada. Decline envelope can integrate production rate and decline trend using probabilistic method to estimate type curve. Estimated production rates by Khaled`s Model fitted better than results by conventional decline curve with field production history. Khaled`s Model can combine two flow regimes, transition flow in early time and boundary dominated flow in late time, that are characteristics of shale gas flow. Type curve using Decline envelope can represent production rate decline trend of each well and all production history.

Keywords

Shale gas

Horn river basin

Decline curve analysis

Type curve

이 연구에서는 생산 감퇴곡선분석으로 캐나다 혼리버 분지의 셰일가스 생산 자료로부터 생산량 및 궁극가채량을 예측하였다. 또한 확률론적 방법을 이용하여 여러 생산정의 자료를 하나의 곡선으로 통합하는 Decline envelope 방법을 이용해 생산정의 생산 이력 특징을 대표하는 표준곡선을 추정하였다. Khaled`s Model을 통해 예측한 생산량이 기존의 생산감퇴곡선에 비해 생산이력과 더 잘 일치하였으며, 예측한 생산량 곡선이 셰일가스의 유동 특징인 생산 초기의 천이유동과 말기의 경계영향유동을 하나의 곡선으로 나타낼 수 있음을 알 수 있었다. Decline envelope 방법을 적용하여 도출한 표준곡선은 각 생산정의 생산이력과 생산량 감퇴 특징을 나타냄을 확인하였다.

키워드

셰일가스

혼리버 분지

생산 감퇴곡선분석법

표준곡선

References

Arps, J.J., 1945, “Analysis of Decline Curves,” Transactions of the AIME, Vol. 160, No. 1, pp. 228-247.
Baihly, J., Altman, R., Malpani, R. and Luo, F., 2010, “Shale Gas Production Decline Trend Comparison Over Time and Basins,” paper 135555 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Florence, Italy, Sept. 19-22.
Brito, L.E., Paz, F. and Belisario, D., 2012, “Probabilistic Production Forecasts using Decline envelopes,” paper 152392 presented at the SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference, Mexico City, Mexico, Apr. 16-18.
Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI), 2012, Pacific Access: Part III – Economic Impacts of Exporting Horn River Natural Gas to Asia as LNG, CERI, Calgary.
Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011, World shale gas resources: An initial assessment of 14 regions outside the united sates, EIA, Washington.
Fekete Associated Inc., 2013.07.03, www.fekete.com.
Fetkovich, M.J., 1980. “Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 32, No. 6, pp. 1065-1077.
Gentry, R.W. and McCray, A.W., 1978, “The Effect of Reservoir and Fluid Properties on Production Decline Curves,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 30, No. 9, pp. 1327-1341.
Khaled, A.F., 2006, “Predicting production performance using a Simplified model,” World Oil, Vol. 227, No. 4, pp.147-151.
Khalid, S., Faurschou, K., Gorchynski, T. and Zhao, X., 2010, “Mapping Key Reservoir Properties Along Horizontal Shale Gas Wells,” paper 137413 presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources and International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Oct. 19-21.
Kupchenko, C.L., Gault, B.W. and Mattar, L., 2008, “Tight Gas Production Performance Using Decline Curves,” paper 114991 presented at the CIPC/SPE Gas Technology Symposium 2008 Join Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Jun. 16-19.
Lee, K.J. and Sung, W.M., 2012, “A Study on Well Interference for Optimal Completion Designs of Shale Gas Wells in Horn River Area, Canada,” J. of Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 292-298.
Lee, W.J. and Wattenbarger, R.A., 1996, Gas Reservoir Engineering. Society of Petroleum Engineers, pp. 215-219.
Lee, Y.S., Choi, J.H., Choi, H.W., Bae, J.Y., Jang, I.S., Kim, J.Y. and Sung, W.M., 2008, “Development and Application of the Visual Statistical-Two Phase Flow Decline Curve Analysis Model,” J. of Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 45, No. 6, pp. 610-619.
Long, D.R. and Davis, M.J., 1988, “A New Approach to the Hyperbolic Curve,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 40, No. 7, pp. 909-912.
Reynolds, M.M. and Munn, D.L., 2010, “Development Update for an Emerging Shale Gas Giant Field - Horn River Basin, British Columbia, Canada,” paper 130103 presented at the SPE Unconventional Gas Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A., Feb. 23-25.
Scott, J.J., 1963, “The Effect of Vertical Fractures on Transient Pressure Behavior of Wells,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 15, No. 12, pp. 1365-1369.

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 50
No :4
Pages :502-511
DOI :https://doi.org/10.12972/ksmer.2013.50.4.502

[1] Arps, J.J., 1945, “Analysis of Decline Curves,” Transactions of the AIME, Vol. 160, No. 1, pp. 228-247.

[2] Baihly, J., Altman, R., Malpani, R. and Luo, F., 2010, “Shale Gas Production Decline Trend Comparison Over Time and Basins,” paper 135555 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Florence, Italy, Sept. 19-22.

[3] Brito, L.E., Paz, F. and Belisario, D., 2012, “Probabilistic Production Forecasts using Decline envelopes,” paper 152392 presented at the SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference, Mexico City, Mexico, Apr. 16-18.

[4] Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI), 2012, Pacific Access: Part III – Economic Impacts of Exporting Horn River Natural Gas to Asia as LNG, CERI, Calgary.

[5] Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011, World shale gas resources: An initial assessment of 14 regions outside the united sates, EIA, Washington.

[6] Fekete Associated Inc., 2013.07.03, www.fekete.com.

[7] Fetkovich, M.J., 1980. “Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 32, No. 6, pp. 1065-1077.

[8] Gentry, R.W. and McCray, A.W., 1978, “The Effect of Reservoir and Fluid Properties on Production Decline Curves,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 30, No. 9, pp. 1327-1341.

[9] Khaled, A.F., 2006, “Predicting production performance using a Simplified model,” World Oil, Vol. 227, No. 4, pp.147-151.

[10] Khalid, S., Faurschou, K., Gorchynski, T. and Zhao, X., 2010, “Mapping Key Reservoir Properties Along Horizontal Shale Gas Wells,” paper 137413 presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources and International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Oct. 19-21.

[11] Kupchenko, C.L., Gault, B.W. and Mattar, L., 2008, “Tight Gas Production Performance Using Decline Curves,” paper 114991 presented at the CIPC/SPE Gas Technology Symposium 2008 Join Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Jun. 16-19.

[12] Lee, K.J. and Sung, W.M., 2012, “A Study on Well Interference for Optimal Completion Designs of Shale Gas Wells in Horn River Area, Canada,” J. of Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 292-298.

[13] Lee, W.J. and Wattenbarger, R.A., 1996, Gas Reservoir Engineering. Society of Petroleum Engineers, pp. 215-219.

[14] Lee, Y.S., Choi, J.H., Choi, H.W., Bae, J.Y., Jang, I.S., Kim, J.Y. and Sung, W.M., 2008, “Development and Application of the Visual Statistical-Two Phase Flow Decline Curve Analysis Model,” J. of Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 45, No. 6, pp. 610-619.

[15] Long, D.R. and Davis, M.J., 1988, “A New Approach to the Hyperbolic Curve,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 40, No. 7, pp. 909-912.

[16] Reynolds, M.M. and Munn, D.L., 2010, “Development Update for an Emerging Shale Gas Giant Field - Horn River Basin, British Columbia, Canada,” paper 130103 presented at the SPE Unconventional Gas Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A., Feb. 23-25.

[17] Scott, J.J., 1963, “The Effect of Vertical Fractures on Transient Pressure Behavior of Wells,” J. of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 15, No. 12, pp. 1365-1369.

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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