Probabilistic Decline Curve Analysis for Forecasting Estimated Ultimate Recovery in Shale Gas Play

Ji-Su Kim; Hyo-Jin Shin; Jong-Se Lim

doi:10.12972/ksmer.2014.51.6.808

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2014 Vol.51, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Probabilistic Decline Curve Analysis for Forecasting Estimated Ultimate Recovery in Shale Gas Play 확률론적 생산감퇴곡선분석법을 이용한 셰일가스 궁극가채량 추정

31 December 2014. pp. 808-819

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Abstract

Due to the sustained high oil prices and improved production technologies, shale gas development gains a great attention. In this study, decline curve analysis(DCA) which is easy to predict the future production using production history, is utilized to forecast estimated ultimate recovery(EUR) in Barnett shale. Monte Carlo simulation representing probabilistic method is also utilized to consider the uncertainty of initial large production behavior in shale gas play. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to both Arps hyperbolic decline used as conventional DCA and Stretched Exponential Production Decline(SEPD) presented for forecasting production rate in shale gas play recently. As a result, the probabilistic EUR is calculated and it is possible to consider the uncertainty of production behavior in shale gas play.

Keywords

Shale gas

Decline curve analysis(DCA)

Monte Carlo simulation

Estimated Ultimate Recovery(EUR)

고유가 지속과 생산성 증대 기술의 향상으로 인해 북미를 중심으로 셰일가스의 개발이 이루어지고 있다. 이 연구에서는 Barnett shale의 일부 생산정 자료로 간편하게 미래의 생산량을 예측할 수 있는 생산감퇴곡선분석법을 이용하여 궁극가채량을 추정하였으며, 초기 생산거동의 변화가 큰 셰일가스의 불확실성을 고려하고자 생산량 예측 시 대표적인 확률론적 기법인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하였다. 생산감퇴곡선분석법 중 일반적으로 사용되는 Arps의 쌍곡선(hyperbolic)함수와 비교적 최근에 제시되어 셰일가스전에 적용 가능한 Stretched Exponential Production Decline(SEPD) 모델에 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용함으로써 도출된 궁극가채량 값을 비교 및 분석하였으며, 확률론적인 예측 결과를 통해 셰일가스 생산 시 나타나는 생산거동의 불확실성을 고려할 수 있었다.

키워드

셰일가스

생산감퇴곡선분석법

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션

궁극가채량

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 51
No :6
Pages :808-819
Received Date : 2014-07-21
Revised Date : 2014-12-16
Accepted Date : 2014-12-19
DOI :https://doi.org/10.12972/ksmer.2014.51.6.808

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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