Comparative Analysis of the Similarity of Solar Irradiance Across Domestic Meteorological Datasets for Short-term Solar Power Generation Forecasting

Geonwoo Lee; Jangwon Suh

doi:10.32390/ksmer.2026.63.4.425

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2026 Vol.63, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Comparative Analysis of the Similarity of Solar Irradiance Across Domestic Meteorological Datasets for Short-term Solar Power Generation Forecasting 단기 태양광 발전량 예측을 위한 국내 기상자료별 일사량의 유사성 비교 분석

31 August 2026. pp. 425-440

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Abstract

Photovoltaic power generation varies depending on the weather conditions. The selection of meteorological data is important for securing reliable short-term forecasts. This study analyzed errors in forecasting global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and PVWatts model-based power generation for 11 sites in Korea. Automated synoptic observing system (ASOS) 2025 data were used as reference against which past ASOS data (2021–2024), a typical meteorological year, and the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) 2025 were compared. Errors were evaluated for all periods as well as sunshine periods using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R². The comparisons revealed that the predictive performance of the LDAPS 2025 is the best. In the case of sunshine periods, for GHI and power generation, the R² values were 0.832 and 0.829, and the MAPE values were 15.9% and 14.8%, respectively. These results show that the LDAPS 2025 accurately estimates weather variability at the time of forecasting . Overall, the results can be used as a basis for selecting meteorological input data for short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting.

Keywords

photovoltaic power generation forecasting

solar-powered electric vehicle

LDAPS

TMY

ASOS

태양광 발전량은 기상조건에 따라 크게 변동하므로, 단기 예측의 신뢰도 확보를 위해서는 적절한 기상 데이터의 선정이 중요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 2025년 종관기상관측자료를 참값으로 설정하고, 2021~2024년 종관기상관측자료, 표준기상자료, 2025년 국지예보모델을 대상으로 국내 11개 지점의 전천일사량 및 PVWatts 모델 기반의 발전량 오차를 분석하였다. 오차 평가는 전체 시간대와 일조 시간대로 구분하여 수행되었으며, 지표로는 평균절대백분율오차와 결정계수를 적용하였다. 분석 결과, 국지예보모델 자료는 일조 시간대 기준 결정계수가 전천일사량 0.832, 발전량 0.829였고, 평균절대백분율오차가 전천일사량 15.9%, 발전량 14.8%로 나타나 비교 대상 중 가장 높은 예측 성능을 보였다. 이는 3종의 기상 데이터 중 국지예보모델이 예측 시점의 기상 변동성을 더 정확하게 추정함을 보여준다. 본 연구결과는 태양광 발전 단기 예보 또는 태양광 전기차 등 이동형 태양광 응용 분야에서 단기 발전량 예측을 위한 입력 기상 데이터 선정의 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드

태양광 발전량 예측

태양광 전기차

국지예보모델

표준기상자료

종관기상관측자료

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 63
No :4
Pages :425-440
Received Date : 2026-06-11
Revised Date : 2026-07-01
Accepted Date : 2026-07-03
DOI :https://doi.org/10.32390/ksmer.2026.63.4.425

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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