Conceptual Economic Evaluation of a Copper Mine in North Korea

Dong-Ho Yoon; Jae-Joon Song

doi:10.32390/ksmer.2019.56.2.183

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2019 Vol.56, Issue 2 Preview Page Next Page

Technical Report

Conceptual Economic Evaluation of a Copper Mine in North Korea 북한 동 광산의 개념적 경제성 평가 사례

30 April 2019. pp. 183-196

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Abstract

In this technical note, a conceptual economic evaluation was performed on the ○○ copper mine in North Korea. The scenario was designed with conservative assumptions about economic factors in order to make allowances for the availability and uncertainty of input data. The results of the evaluation show that the ○○ mine project has a considerably high investment value, with 38% internal rate of return (IRR) and US$ 131,700,000 net present value (NPV), at a 25% discount rate. A sensitivity analysis was also performed for the major economic factors, using a range of 25% for the lower and upper bounds. The economic factors considered, in order of priority, were metal price, ore grade, capital expenditures (CAPEX), and operating expenditures (OPEX). This research was conducted based on several assumptions about economic factors due to the lack of data. Accordingly, there may exist a high level of inherent uncertainty. Therefore, the results of this study can be used as preliminary data for the development of mineral resources in North Korea, but they are not suitable to be directly used for investment purposes. This research needs to be complemented with applicable field data to improve reliability of the results.

Keywords

North Korea

Copper mine

Conceptual economic evaluation

Sensitivity analysis

본 기술보고서에서는 북한 ○○ 동 광산에 대한 개념적 경제성 평가를 수행하였다. 북한 광산자료 수집의 어려움과 불확실성을 보완하기 위해 경제요인에 대한 가정 수립 시 보수적인 기준을 적용하여 시나리오를 설계하였다. 평가 결과 IRR은 38 퍼센트, NPV는 25 퍼센트 할인율 적용 시 US$ 131,700,000으로 산출되어 투자가치가 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 광산 개발 계획의 주요 경제요인에 대해 25 퍼센트의 상하한 변동 범위를 설정하여 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. ○○ 광산의 경제요인 우선순위는 금속가격, 광석품위, CAPEX, OPEX 순인 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 제한된 자료로 인해 여러 경제요인에 대한 다수의 가정에 기초하여 수행되었으며, 이에 따른 내재적인 불확실성이 존재한다. 따라서, 본 연구 결과는 북한 광물자원 개발 계획 수립을 위한 참고자료로 이용할 수 있으나 직접적인 투자 목적으로 이용하기에는 적합하지 않으며, 평가 결과의 신뢰도 향상을 위해서는 광산자료의 보완 및 추가 연구 수행이 필요하다.

키워드

북한

동 광산

개념적 경제성 평가

민감도 분석

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 56
No :2
Pages :183-196
Received Date : 2019-02-11
Revised Date : 2019-04-22
Accepted Date : 2019-04-29
DOI :https://doi.org/10.32390/ksmer.2019.56.2.183

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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