Empirical Study on the Relationship Among Economic Growth, Oil Consumption,
and Oil Exports in the Middle East Countries

doi:10.12972/ksmer.2016.53.1.019

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2016 Vol.53, Issue 1 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Empirical Study on the Relationship Among Economic Growth, Oil Consumption, and Oil Exports in the Middle East Countries 중동국가의 경제성장과 석유소비 및 석유수출 간의 관계에 대한 실증분석: 최고봉·Zaid Yahya Abdulkader·허은녕
Gobong Choi, Zaid Yahya Abdulkader and Eunnyeong Heo

28 February 2016. pp. 19-35

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Abstract

This study analyzed long-run equilibrium and causal relationship among economic growth, oil consumption,and oil exports in seven middle-east countries including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia,Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq. Empirical results suggest existence of three groups among seven countries. The first group,the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman, show that their economic growth was in equilibrium with oilconsumption while the second group, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq, show that their economic growth was inequilibrium with oil export, and the third group, Kuwait, shows that their economic growth was not in equilibriumwith either oil consumption or oil exports. This study can give insights to further energy studies about middle-eastcountries.

Keywords

Economic growth

Oil consumption

Oil exports

The middle east

본 연구에서는 아랍에미리트연합, 바레인, 오만, 사우디아라비아, 쿠웨이트, 이란, 이라크 등 7개의중동국가의 경제성장과 석유소비 및 석유수출에 대해서 장기균형 유무를 검정하고 인과관계를 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따라 중동국가들의 경제성장은 석유소비와 장기균형이 성립하는 국가, 석유수출과 장기균형이 성립하는국가, 석유소비와 석유수출과 장기균형을 성립하지 못하는 3개의 그룹으로 분류되었다. 경제성장과 석유소비간에 장기균형이 성립하는 국가는 아랍에미리트연합, 바레인, 오만이었으며, 경제성장과 석유소비 간에 장기균형이 성립하는 국가는 사우디아라비아, 이란, 이라크였다. 쿠웨이트의 경제성장은 석유소비와 석유수출 둘 다장기균형이 성립하지 않았다. 본 연구는 향후 에너지를 수출하는 국가들이 어떤 방식으로 경제성장을 하고 있는지에 대한 기초연구로 활용될 수 있다.

키워드

경제성장

석유소비

석유수출

중동국가

References

Al-Iriani, M.A., 2005, “Climate-related electricity DSM in oil-exporting countries: the case of the United Arab Emirates,” Energy Policy, Vol. 33, No. 18, pp. 2350-2360.
Al-Iriani, M.A., 2006, “Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality,” Energy Policy, Vol. 34, No. 17, pp. 3342-3350.
Arab Monetary Fund, 2015, Economic Statistics Bulletin of Arab Countiries, U.A.E.: Arab Monetary Fund Publications.
Bentley, R.W., 2002, “Global Oil & Gas Depletion: an Overview,” Energy Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 189-205.
Campbell, C.J. and Laherrère, J., 1998, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, Vol. 278, No. 3, pp. 78-83.
Cho, S., Heo, E. and Kim, J., 2015, “Causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth: comparison between developed and less-developed countries,” Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 284-291.
Coers, R. and Sanders, M., 2013, “The energy-GDP nexus; addressing an old question with new methods,” Energy Economics, Vol. 36, pp. 708-715.
Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1979, “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root,” J. of American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 366a, pp. 427-431.
Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J., 1987, “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276.
Granger, C.W.J., 1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods,” Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 424-438.
Hwang, K., Kim, J., Hwang, Y. and Heo, E., 2012, “Decoupling of International Natural Gas Prices from Crude Oil Prices,” Journal of The Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 338-349
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International Monetary Fund, 2013, Regional Economic Outlook Middle East and Central asia 2013, The United States of America: IMF Publication.
Johansen, S., 1988, “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors,” J. of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 72, No. 2-3, pp. 231-254.
Johansen, S., 1995, “A Statistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables,” Economic Theory, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 25-59.
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KIEP, 2007, “The Trend and Evaluation for Diversification Policy of the Middle East Countries: Case for UAE,” Regional Economic Focus, Vol. 1, No. 8, pp. 1-12.
KIET, 2012, The Strategy for Industrial Diversification of GCC Countries and the Cooperation of Korea, Korea Institute for Industrial Economic & Trade, Seoul, Korea.
Kim, J. and Heo, E., 2012a, “Energy and economic growth: causality analysis using decomposed energy consumption,” Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 171-178.
Kim, M. and Heo, E., 2012b, “Crude Oil Market Efficiency Considering Endogenous Structure Breaks,” Journal of The Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 338-349.
KOTRA, 2006, The Effect of FTA between Korea and GCC, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, Seoul, Korea.
KOTRA, 2014, The Trend for Diversification Policy of the Middle East Countries and the Promising Manufacture Equipment, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, Seoul, Korea.
KOTRA, 2015.11.27, www.kotra.or.kr.
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Osterwald-Lenum, M., 1992, “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 461-472.
Phillips, P.C.B., 1988, “Testing for a unit root in time series regression,” Biometrika, Vol. 75, No. 2, pp. 335-346.
Schwert, G.W., 1989, “Tests for unit roots: a Monte Carlo investigation,” J. of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 147-159.
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The Bank of Korea, 2013, “The Middle East Countries Economy Outlook,” International Economy Review, No. 2013-11.
The Export-Import Bank of Korea, 2014, Country Risk Report for Iran, The Export-Import Bank of Korea, Seoul, Korea.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2015.08.05, www. eia.gov.

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 53
No :1
Pages :19-35
DOI :https://doi.org/10.12972/ksmer.2016.53.1.019

[1] Al-Iriani, M.A., 2005, “Climate-related electricity DSM in oil-exporting countries: the case of the United Arab Emirates,” Energy Policy, Vol. 33, No. 18, pp. 2350-2360.

[2] Al-Iriani, M.A., 2006, “Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality,” Energy Policy, Vol. 34, No. 17, pp. 3342-3350.

[3] Arab Monetary Fund, 2015, Economic Statistics Bulletin of Arab Countiries, U.A.E.: Arab Monetary Fund Publications.

[4] Bentley, R.W., 2002, “Global Oil & Gas Depletion: an Overview,” Energy Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 189-205.

[5] Campbell, C.J. and Laherrère, J., 1998, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, Vol. 278, No. 3, pp. 78-83.

[6] Cho, S., Heo, E. and Kim, J., 2015, “Causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth: comparison between developed and less-developed countries,” Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 284-291.

[7] Coers, R. and Sanders, M., 2013, “The energy-GDP nexus; addressing an old question with new methods,” Energy Economics, Vol. 36, pp. 708-715.

[8] Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1979, “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root,” J. of American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 366a, pp. 427-431.

[9] Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J., 1987, “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276.

[10] Granger, C.W.J., 1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods,” Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 424-438.

[11] Hwang, K., Kim, J., Hwang, Y. and Heo, E., 2012, “Decoupling of International Natural Gas Prices from Crude Oil Prices,” Journal of The Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 338-349

[12] International Energy Agency, 2014, World Energy Outlook 2014, France: IEA Publication.

[13] International Monetary Fund, 2013, Regional Economic Outlook Middle East and Central asia 2013, The United States of America: IMF Publication.

[14] Johansen, S., 1988, “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors,” J. of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 72, No. 2-3, pp. 231-254.

[15] Johansen, S., 1995, “A Statistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables,” Economic Theory, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 25-59.

[16] KEEI, 2007, Country Profile - Saudi Arabia, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Uiwang, Korea.

[17] KIEP, 2007, “The Trend and Evaluation for Diversification Policy of the Middle East Countries: Case for UAE,” Regional Economic Focus, Vol. 1, No. 8, pp. 1-12.

[18] KIET, 2012, The Strategy for Industrial Diversification of GCC Countries and the Cooperation of Korea, Korea Institute for Industrial Economic & Trade, Seoul, Korea.

[19] Kim, J. and Heo, E., 2012a, “Energy and economic growth: causality analysis using decomposed energy consumption,” Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 171-178.

[20] Kim, M. and Heo, E., 2012b, “Crude Oil Market Efficiency Considering Endogenous Structure Breaks,” Journal of The Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 338-349.

[21] KOTRA, 2006, The Effect of FTA between Korea and GCC, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, Seoul, Korea.

[22] KOTRA, 2014, The Trend for Diversification Policy of the Middle East Countries and the Promising Manufacture Equipment, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, Seoul, Korea.

[23] KOTRA, 2015.11.27, www.kotra.or.kr.

[24] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2013, “The Trend of Iran Oil industry,” International Energy and Resources Trend, Vol. 13, No. 99, pp. 1-3.

[25] Narayan, P.K. and Popp, S., 2012, “The energy consumption- real GDP nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from 93 countries,” Economic Modelling, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 303-308.

[26] OPEC, 2015, OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, Austria: OPEC Publications.

[27] Osterwald-Lenum, M., 1992, “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 461-472.

[28] Phillips, P.C.B., 1988, “Testing for a unit root in time series regression,” Biometrika, Vol. 75, No. 2, pp. 335-346.

[29] Schwert, G.W., 1989, “Tests for unit roots: a Monte Carlo investigation,” J. of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 147-159.

[30] Soares, J.A., Kim, Y.K. and Heo, E., 2014, “Analysis of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Indonesia,” Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 58-62.

[31] Squalli, J., 2007, “Electricity consumption and economic growth: Bounds and causality analyses of OPEC members,” Energy Economics, Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 1192-1205.

[32] The Bank of Korea, 2013, “The Middle East Countries Economy Outlook,” International Economy Review, No. 2013-11.

[33] The Export-Import Bank of Korea, 2014, Country Risk Report for Iran, The Export-Import Bank of Korea, Seoul, Korea.

[34] Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T., 1995, “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 66, No. 1-2, pp. 225-250.

[35] U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2015.08.05, www. eia.gov.

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