All Issue

2014 Vol.51, Issue 6 Preview Page

Research Paper

The Effect of External Costs on the Power Generation Mix

외부 비용이 국내 전원 믹스 구성에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구

Hanbyeol Kim1
,
Juhan Kim1
,
Jinsoo Kim1*
김 한별1
,
김 주한1
,
김 진수1*
1Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University
1한양대학교 자원환경공학과
*Corresponding Author. 
31 December 2014. pp. 771-785
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

Recently, Japan and EU have made an effort to reflect external costs into power generation costs. Korea which is planed to introduce a emission trading market is also needed to reflect the external costs. In the light of this, we conducted a portfolio analysis to make an optimal power mix for new power generation facilities in Korea with external costs. As results, the generation cost increased by 5.96–18.48 Won/kWh when applying Japanese data and by 18.02–38.07 Won/kWh when applying EU data. The scenario analysis applying the decreases of the cost of renewable power sources was also conducted. The result indicated that the generation cost decreases by 5.89–15.07 Won/kWh in 2030. The analysis results considering emission trading prices showed the cost will be increased by 7.08–7.55 Won/kWh although there was negative correlation between emission trading price and unit balance price.

Keywords
Portfolio analysis
External cost
Power mix
Emission trading system

최근 일본, 유럽에서는 외부 비용을 도출하여 전원구성에 반영하려는 노력이 지속되고 있다. 배출권 거래제의 도입이 예정되어 있는 우리나라도 외부 비용을 고려한 전원구성 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구에서는 포트폴리오 이론을 활용하여 외부 비용을 고려한 시나리오 분석을 통해 신규 전원 믹스에 대해 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 일본에서 도출한 외부 비용을 반영하였을 경우에는 5.96–18.48원/kWh, EU 자료를 반영하였을 경우에는 18.02–38.07원/kWh의 발전단가 상승이 있었다. 또한 정부에서 산정한 신재생 에너지 발전 비용 감소율을 고려하여 시나리오를 구성한 결과, 동일 위험 기준 2030년에 5.89–15.07원/kWh 감소할 것으로 분석되었다. 유럽 탄소 거래 시장의 자료를 반영하여 탄소배출권거래제의 영향을 분석한 결과 배출권거래 가격과 정산단가의 음의 상관관계에도 불구하고 7.08–7.55원/kWh 상승하였다.

키워드
포트폴리오 분석
외부 비용
전원 믹스
탄소배출권거래제
References
1
Awerbuch, S. and Berger, M., 2003, Applying portfolio theory to EU electricity planning and policy-making, IEA/ EET Working Paper, International Energy Agency, Paris.
2
CASES, 2008, Development of a set of full cost estimates of the use of different energy sources and its comparative assessment in EU countries, Cost Assessment of Sus-tainable Energy Systems, European Commission, Brussels.
3
CGG, 2009, Green growth 5-year plan, 11-B552462-000002- 01, Committee on Green Growth, Korea.
4
HRI, 2012, Hidden costs of nuclear power plant, 12-49, Hyundai Research Institute, Korea
5
ICE, “EU ETS EUA future price,” InterContinental Exchange, 2014.06.01.,https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/ReportCenter.shtml
6
Jeong, K.H., 2010, Connection between emission trading system and renewable portfolio standard, Basic report, 10-15, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Uiwang.
7
Kang, K.U., Ko, B.J., Chung, B.J., 2009, “The Effect of the Demand Forecast on the Energy Mix in the National Electricity Supply and Demand Planning,” Journal of Energy Engineering, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 114-124.
8
Kim, S.R., 2013, Energy taxation system and reorganization, Establishment of reasonable price on energy system, National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social sciences, 2013. 09. 24.
9
Kim, Y.K. and Cho, S.J., 2013, “Analysis for External Cost of Nuclear Power Focusing on Additional Safety and Accident Risk Costs,” Environmental and Resource Eco-nomics Review, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 367-391.
10
Kim, J. and Kim, J., 2014, “Portfolio Analysis on the New Power Generation Sources of the Sixth Basic Plan for Long Term Electricity Demand and Supply,” Environmental and Resource Economics Review, Vol. 23, No. 4, forthcoming.
11
Korea Power Exchange, 2014.06.01., http://epsis.kpx.or.kr
12
Lee, Y.S., 2012, Portfolio Analysis on The Generation Mix Plan, Basic report, 12-07, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Uiwang.
13
Markowitz, H., 1952, “Portfolio Selection,” Journal of Finance, Vol 7, pp. 77-91.
14
Merton, R. 1972, “An Analytic Derivation of the Efficient Portfolio Frontier,” The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol 7, No 4, pp. 1851-1872.
15
MOCIE, 2006, Feed in tariffs of renewable energy and renewable portfolio standards, Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy, Korea.
16
MKE, 2013, The 6th fundamental plan for long term electricity supply, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea.
17
MOTIE, 2014, The 2nd basic plan for energy, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea.
18
Moon, Y.S., Rho, D.S., Cho, S.M., 2011, “Re-examination of Energy Mix Policy: Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy Expansion in Power Generation Sector,” Korean Energy Economic Review, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 169-186.
19
Rho, D.S., 2013, The optimal generation mix for considering economic and social costs of nuclear power, Basic report, 13-27, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Uiwang.
20
Yang, J. H., 2013, Analysis on risk variation by renewables in the planning on optimality of electricity mix, MS Thesis, Seoul national university, Korea.
21
コスト等検証委員会, 2011, コスト等検証委員会報告書, pp.1-86, エネルギー・環境会議, Japan.
Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
  • Volume : 51
  • No :6
  • Pages :771-785
  • Received Date : 2014-08-11
  • Revised Date : 2014-12-05
  • Accepted Date : 2014-12-19
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.12972/ksmer.2014.51.6.771
Journal Informaiton Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Online Submission
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • crossref crossmark
  • crossref cited-by
  • KCI 문헌 유사도 검사
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close