Research Paper
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In this study, we analyzed the long-run relationship among BRICs(Brazil, Russia, India, and China) gross domestic product and six major base metal(Aluminum, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Zinc, and Tin) prices. In particular, we focused on the different effect of three groups that are OECD, BRICs, and BRIs(three countries without China) on base metal prices. To analyze those differences, quarterly data from 1996 to 2011 were gathered and cointegration and Granger causality analysis with vector error correction model were applied. As results, we could figure out the difference in direction and effect among the relationships and the influence of BRICs on metal prices was slightly stronger than that of OECD. Consequently, it is necessary to consider the effect of BRICs, especially China, when analyzing the base metal prices.
본 연구에서는 산업의 주요 원재료로 사용되는 6대 비금속(base metal)인 알루미늄, 구리, 납, 니켈, 연, 아연의 가격 변동이 브라질, 러시아, 인도와 중국으로 구성된 BRICs 국가의 국내총생산(GDP)과 장기적으로 동행하는가를 알아보고자 하였다. 특히 경제협력개발기구(OECD)와 BRICs, 그리고 중국을 제외한 3국의 영향을 각각 분석함으로써 어떠한 그룹이 비금속의 가격 변동에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는지 살펴보았다. 방법론으로는 공적분과 벡터오차수정모형을 사용한 인과관계 분석을 적용하였으며, 1996년~2011년의 분기별 자료를 사용하였다. 분석 결과 광종에 따라 OECD와 BRICs GDP가 금속 가격에 미치는 영향력과 방향성이 서로 상이한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 비금속 가격의 분석에 있어서 BRICs GDP, 특히 중국의 중요성을 확인할 수 있었으며 OECD보다는 BRICs와의 관계가 보다 밀접한 것으로 분석되었다.
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- Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
- Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
- Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
- Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
- Volume : 50
- No :5
- Pages :613-624
- DOI :https://doi.org/10.32390/ksmer.2013.50.5.613
Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
