Study on Decision Making for Mine Development Project with Uncertainty

doi:10.12972/ksmer.2016.53.2.149

All Issue

2016 Vol.53, Issue 2 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Study on Decision Making for Mine Development Project with Uncertainty 불확실성을 포함한 광산개발 프로젝트의 의사결정 연구: 이동길
Dong-Kil Lee

30 April 2016. pp. 149-157

PDF

Abstract

Cases introducing a series of events that occurred in the course of mine development are given anda method of studying the economic feasibility of a mine using a decision tree is proposed in an attempt to optimizethe economic value of the mine, which varies depending on decision making. In risk-averse cases, the optimalselling rate of a joint venture was shown to be 63%; sensitivity analysis revealed that the value of the ore bodyand costs associated with drilling were the major economic factors involved. In our analysis, the risk-aversecondition maximized the economic feasibility of the mine. When mine development was implemented using theoptimal decision making (risk-averse) strategy, the revenue/cost ratio was in the range of 3.55 to 6.14 and theprobability of the revenue/cost ratio being lower than that resulting from risk-neutral decision making was 8%or less.

Keywords

Decision tree

Mine development

Mine feasibility study

Monte Carlo simulation

본 연구에서는 광산개발과정에서 발생하는 일련의 사건들에 대한 사례를 설정하고 의사결정에 의해변동되는 광산의 경제적 가치를 최적화하기 위해 의사결정나무를 이용한 광산의 경제적 평가기법을 제시하였다.또한 의사결정나무를 분석하여 위험도 대응방식(위험중립, 위험기피)에 따른 최적의 의사결정 경로를 도출하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 사례에 대해 위험기피의 경우 최적의 합작법인 판매비율은 63%로 나타났으며, 민감도분석결과 광체의 가치와 시추비용이 주요인자로 판명되었다. 또한 위험도 대응조건에 대한 최선의 조건과 최악의 조건에 대해 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 수행하여 사례별 총 수익을 평가한 결과, 위험기피 조건이 광산의경제성을 최대로 확보할 수 있는 방안으로 나타났다. 위험기피 조건으로 제시된 최적의 의사결정 경로로 광산개발을 수행할 경우에 수익/비용비는 3.55∼6.14를 보이며, 수익/비용비가 위험중립보다 낮을 확률은 8%이하로나타났다.

키워드

의사결정나무

광산개발

광산 경제성 평가

Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션

References

Bai, J.S., 2014, A study on priority of determinants of career decision level and career preparation behavior in high school studients based on decision tree analysis, doctoral thesis, Soonchunhyang University, South Korea.
Euh, S.S., Lee, S.R. and Yoo, S.H., 2012, “Analytic Hierarchy Process for Deriving Priority of Mine Reclamation Projects,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 388-394.
Hartman, H.L., 1992, SME Mining Engineering Handbook, Society of Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration, USA.
Kim, S.K., 2009, A study on model detection recommended by decision tree, M.S. thesis, Korea university, South Korea.
Kim, Y.M., Budzaya, U. and Lee, J.H., 2013, “A Study on the Estimation of CBM Resources Using Probabilistic Approach from Mongolian Coal Basin Information,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 50, No. 5, pp. 678-691.
Kirkwood, C.W., 2002, “Approximating Risk Aversion in Decision Analysis Applications,” Decision Analysis, pp. 51-67.
Lee, M.S., Choe, Y.C. and Yoo, B.J., 2007, “Identifying Early Adopters of Information Systems by Inductive Learning Using Decision Tree Method,” Information Systems Review, Vol. 9, No. 7, pp. 67-84.
Lee, S.R. and Lee, C.W., 2015, “Application of Decision- Tree Model to Groundwater Productivity-Potential Mapping,” Sustainability, Vol. 7, pp. 13416-13432.
Lee, S.R. and Park, I.H., 2013, “Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines,” Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 127, pp. 166-176.
Lord, D., Etheridge, M. and Uttley, P., 2003, “Risk and value in mineral exploration-Case studies on application of risk analysis,” AIG seminar, Perth, Australia, November.
Park, C.H., Kang, J.M. and Lee, H.Y., 2009, “Determination of Optimum Working Interest Based on Mean-Reverting Oil-price Forecast and Monte Carlo Approach,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 61-71.
Park, M.W., Choi, S.R., Shin, A.M. and Koo, C.H., 2013, “Analysis of the Characteristics of the Older Adults with Depression Using Data Mining Decision Tree Analysis,” Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing, Vol. 43, No.1, pp. 1-10.
Quinlan, J.R., 1987, “Simplifying decision tree,” International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, pp. 221-234.
Saaty, T.L., 1980, The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation, McGraw-Hill, New York, USA.
Sandmo, A., 1971, “On the theory of competitive firm under price uncertainty,” American Economic Review, Vol. 61, pp. 65-73.
Son, J., Choi, Y.S., Park, H.D. and Go, W.R., 2014, “GIS-based Decision Support Model for Establishing Promotion Policy of Abandoned Mining Areas with Considering Local Characteristics,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 41-54.
Suskick S.B., Schiozer D. and Rodriguez M.R., 2009, “Uncertainty and Risk Analysis in Petroleum Exploration and Production,” TERRAE, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 30-41.

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 53
No :2
Pages :149-157
DOI :https://doi.org/10.12972/ksmer.2016.53.2.149

[1] Bai, J.S., 2014, A study on priority of determinants of career decision level and career preparation behavior in high school studients based on decision tree analysis, doctoral thesis, Soonchunhyang University, South Korea.

[2] Euh, S.S., Lee, S.R. and Yoo, S.H., 2012, “Analytic Hierarchy Process for Deriving Priority of Mine Reclamation Projects,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 388-394.

[3] Hartman, H.L., 1992, SME Mining Engineering Handbook, Society of Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration, USA.

[4] Kim, S.K., 2009, A study on model detection recommended by decision tree, M.S. thesis, Korea university, South Korea.

[5] Kim, Y.M., Budzaya, U. and Lee, J.H., 2013, “A Study on the Estimation of CBM Resources Using Probabilistic Approach from Mongolian Coal Basin Information,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 50, No. 5, pp. 678-691.

[6] Kirkwood, C.W., 2002, “Approximating Risk Aversion in Decision Analysis Applications,” Decision Analysis, pp. 51-67.

[7] Lee, M.S., Choe, Y.C. and Yoo, B.J., 2007, “Identifying Early Adopters of Information Systems by Inductive Learning Using Decision Tree Method,” Information Systems Review, Vol. 9, No. 7, pp. 67-84.

[8] Lee, S.R. and Lee, C.W., 2015, “Application of Decision- Tree Model to Groundwater Productivity-Potential Mapping,” Sustainability, Vol. 7, pp. 13416-13432.

[9] Lee, S.R. and Park, I.H., 2013, “Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines,” Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 127, pp. 166-176.

[10] Lord, D., Etheridge, M. and Uttley, P., 2003, “Risk and value in mineral exploration-Case studies on application of risk analysis,” AIG seminar, Perth, Australia, November.

[11] Park, C.H., Kang, J.M. and Lee, H.Y., 2009, “Determination of Optimum Working Interest Based on Mean-Reverting Oil-price Forecast and Monte Carlo Approach,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 61-71.

[12] Park, M.W., Choi, S.R., Shin, A.M. and Koo, C.H., 2013, “Analysis of the Characteristics of the Older Adults with Depression Using Data Mining Decision Tree Analysis,” Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing, Vol. 43, No.1, pp. 1-10.

[13] Quinlan, J.R., 1987, “Simplifying decision tree,” International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, pp. 221-234.

[14] Saaty, T.L., 1980, The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation, McGraw-Hill, New York, USA.

[15] Sandmo, A., 1971, “On the theory of competitive firm under price uncertainty,” American Economic Review, Vol. 61, pp. 65-73.

[16] Son, J., Choi, Y.S., Park, H.D. and Go, W.R., 2014, “GIS-based Decision Support Model for Establishing Promotion Policy of Abandoned Mining Areas with Considering Local Characteristics,” Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 41-54.

[17] Suskick S.B., Schiozer D. and Rodriguez M.R., 2009, “Uncertainty and Risk Analysis in Petroleum Exploration and Production,” TERRAE, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 30-41.

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

All Issue