Analyzing the Impact of Critical Mineral Price Shocks on Real Investment

Da-gyeong Yoo; Hongwon Ha; Doohwan Won

doi:10.32390/ksmer.2026.63.1.163

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2026 Vol.63, Issue 1S Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Analyzing the Impact of Critical Mineral Price Shocks on Real Investment 핵심광물 가격 충격이 실물 투자에 미치는 영향 분석

28 February 2026. pp. 163-172

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Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic effects of critical mineral price fluctuations—specifically those of copper, nickel, lithium, and rare earth elements—on Korean manufacturing investment. Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the analysis finds that although adjustment patterns vary by mineral, statistically significant effects on investment are limited. Variance decomposition shows that investment volatility is largely self-driven. Furthermore, causality tests indicate that mineral prices are exogenous and shaped by global macroeconomic factors rather than domestic investment. The findings suggest that price shocks act as indirect pressures, delaying investment decisions by amplifying uncertainty, rather than causing immediate reductions. Consequently, mineral risks should be interpreted through the lens of uncertainty management rather than exaggerated short-term impacts.

Keywords

critical minerals

corporate investment

vector autoregression

본 연구는 에너지 전환 국면에서 핵심광물 가격 변동이 한국 제조업 설비투자에 미치는 동태적 영향을 VAR 모형을 통해 분석하였다. 실증 분석 결과, 광물 가격 변동 충격이 설비투자에 미치는 통계적으로 유의한 즉각적 효과는 확인되지 않았으며, 투자의 변동성은 주로 자체 충격과 관성에 기인하는 것으로 나타났다. 인과성 검정에서도 국내 투자가 아닌 글로벌 거시 변수가 광물 가격을 주도하는 외생적 특성이 확인되었다. 이는 광물 가격 변동의 충격이 설비투자를 직접적으로 위축시키기보다는 불확실성을 증폭시켜 기업의 의사결정을 지연시키는 간접적 압력으로 작용함을 시사한다. 따라서 정책 대응은 단기적 효과보다는 불확실성 관리와 조정 비용 완화에 초점을 맞춰야 한다.

키워드

핵심광물

기업 투자

VAR

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 63
No :1
Pages :163-172
Received Date : 2025-12-29
Revised Date : 2026-01-16
Accepted Date : 2026-01-22
DOI :https://doi.org/10.32390/ksmer.2026.63.1.163

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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