Evaluation of the Economic Risk of a Mine Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

doi:10.12972/ksmer.2016.53.4.321

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2016 Vol.53, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Evaluation of the Economic Risk of a Mine Using Monte-Carlo Simulation 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 광산의 경제적 리스크 평가: 이동길
Dong-Kil Lee

31 August 2016. pp. 321-330

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Abstract

Through a review of previous cases of economic evaluation of mines, this study intended to identifymajor factors of mine economics, predict future prices of the factors using a time-series analysis, perform MonteCarlo simulation with the probability distributions of the factors and so on. A technique for evaluating theeconomic risks of mines through a series of processes was suggested by this study. In addition, a single pointanalysis method was employed using actual data collected from 2013 to 2015, and then, the results were comparedwith those obtained with the Monte Carlo analysis method. According to the results, the Monte Carlo analysismethod produced results closer to the actual values compared to those produced by the single-point analysismethod. Under the given conditions in this study, the risk analysis method using Monte Carlo simulation is themore effective way to evaluate the accurate value of mines than the single-point analysis method.

Keywords

Mine feasibility study

Monte Carlo Simulation

Single point estimation

Risk analysis

본 연구에서는 기수행된 광산의 경제성 평가사례를 대상으로 주요 인자의 선정, 시계열 분석을 통한미래가격의 예측, 그리고 각 인자별 확률분포에 따른 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 등 일련의 과정에 의한 광산의 경제적 리스크 평가기법을 제시하였다. 또한 2013년부터 2015년까지의 실제 데이터를 이용하여 단일 점(single point)분석기법과 몬테카를로 분석기법을 비교하였다. 그 결과, 본 연구에서 제안된 몬테카를로 분석방법이 단일 점분석기법보다 실제값에 근사하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 조건에서 광산의 가치평가는 단일 점 분석기법보다몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 리스크 분석기법이 광산의 가치평가에 대한 정확한 예측에 더 효과적인 것으로나타났다.

키워드

광산 경제성 평가

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션

단일 점 추정법

리스크 평가

References

Ashkara, F. and Mahdi, S. 2006, “Fitting the log-logistic distribution by generalized moments,” J. of Hydrology, Vol. 328, No. 3-4, pp. 694-703.
Bank of Korea, 2012.02.02, http://ecos.bok.or.kr/, Economic statistical system.
Baurens, 2010, Valuation of Metals and Mining Companies, Basinvest, Zürich, Switzerland.
Choi, S.N., 2012, Mixed view to Korea Zinc; continuous rise vs overshooting, Korea Economic Daily, Feb 10, 2012.
Coles, S., 2011, “An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values,” Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, London, England.
Eretec, 2010, Decision Tools Suite user’s manual, Eretec software, Korea.
KIGAM, 2012, 2011 mineral product supply status, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Korea.
Kim, T.l., 2013, Electric charge up by 5.4%. tax imposed on bituminous coal, Yonhap News, Nov 19, 2013.
Krstev, D.M.B., Krstev, A., and Petrovski, F, 2009, Mine Project Evaluation Techniques, Natural Resources Annual of Faculty of Natural and Technical Sciences, pp. 1-7.
Lee, D.K. and Jo, Y.D., 2016, “A Study on the Mine Design and Economic Feasibility Analysis using a Mine Design Software,” J. Korean Soc. Miner. Energy Resour. Eng., Vol. 53, No. 2, pp. 175-186.
Torries, T., 1998, Evaluating mineral projects: applications and misconceptions, SME, USA, p. 153.
Yoo, U.S., 2012, Net profit of 27 public enterprises including KEPCO drops last year, Joseilbo, Apr 30, 2012.

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 53
No :4
Pages :321-330
DOI :https://doi.org/10.12972/ksmer.2016.53.4.321

[1] Ashkara, F. and Mahdi, S. 2006, “Fitting the log-logistic distribution by generalized moments,” J. of Hydrology, Vol. 328, No. 3-4, pp. 694-703.

[2] Bank of Korea, 2012.02.02, http://ecos.bok.or.kr/, Economic statistical system.

[3] Baurens, 2010, Valuation of Metals and Mining Companies, Basinvest, Zürich, Switzerland.

[4] Choi, S.N., 2012, Mixed view to Korea Zinc; continuous rise vs overshooting, Korea Economic Daily, Feb 10, 2012.

[5] Coles, S., 2011, “An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values,” Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, London, England.

[6] Eretec, 2010, Decision Tools Suite user’s manual, Eretec software, Korea.

[7] KIGAM, 2012, 2011 mineral product supply status, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Korea.

[8] Kim, T.l., 2013, Electric charge up by 5.4%. tax imposed on bituminous coal, Yonhap News, Nov 19, 2013.

[9] Krstev, D.M.B., Krstev, A., and Petrovski, F, 2009, Mine Project Evaluation Techniques, Natural Resources Annual of Faculty of Natural and Technical Sciences, pp. 1-7.

[10] Lee, D.K. and Jo, Y.D., 2016, “A Study on the Mine Design and Economic Feasibility Analysis using a Mine Design Software,” J. Korean Soc. Miner. Energy Resour. Eng., Vol. 53, No. 2, pp. 175-186.

[11] Torries, T., 1998, Evaluating mineral projects: applications and misconceptions, SME, USA, p. 153.

[12] Yoo, U.S., 2012, Net profit of 27 public enterprises including KEPCO drops last year, Joseilbo, Apr 30, 2012.

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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