A Geological and Political Model for Petroleum Resources Development

doi:10.12972/ksmer.2014.51.2.167

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2014 Vol.51, Issue 2 Next Page

Research Paper

A Geological and Political Model for Petroleum Resources Development 석유자원 개발의 지질·정치 모형: 이종인
Jongin Lee

30 April 2014. pp. 167-177

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Abstract

A geological and political model was developed to estimate the probability of good performance for petroleum resources development projects by regression analysis with 12 countries’ data about the size of reserves, drilling depth, and geographical and economic attributes. The performance probability is positively related to the size of reserves and drilling depth. The model also supports that the geographical and economic conditions of the countries under study affect the performance of their petroleum resources development projects. For the convenience of this analysis, the data of limited countries were used for the development of the model. For the increased use of the model, countries under analysis should be expanded to all ones domestic companies entered to develop petroleum resources projects, and the aggregated single variable of the socio-political indicator may be refined to deal with social and economic aspects of the country separately.

Keywords

Geological and political model

Petroleum resources development

Sizes of reserves

Drilling depth

Performance probability

유전의 우량 여부를 결정하는 것으로 추정되는 변수를 선택하여 분석 대상 국가의 석유자원 탐사 개발 자료를 활용하여 회귀 분석으로 지질･정치 모형을 개발한 결과, 유전의 우량 여부는 매장량 규모와 시추 심도와 깊은 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났고, 자원보유국의 지리학적 및 경제적 여건이 개발 사업의 수행에 영향을 미친다는 것이 확인되었다. 모형 개발은 분석의 편의를 위해 일부 한정된 국가의 자료를 활용하였다. 모형의 활용도를 높이기 위해 분석 대상 국가를 국내 기업이 진출한 모든 국가로 확대하고, 모형에 투입되는 정치적 변수는 자원보유국의 사회적 및 경제적 특성을 잘 나타내는 정교한 것이 개발되어야 할 것이다.

키워드

지질･정치 모형

석유자원 개발

매장량 크기

시추 심도

우량 확률

References

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 51
No :2
Pages :167-177
DOI :https://doi.org/10.12972/ksmer.2014.51.2.167

[1] Adelman, M.A., 1990, “Mineral Depletion, With Special Reference to Petroleum,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 72, No. 1, pp. 1-10.

[2] Barlett, A.A., 2000, “An analysis of u.s. and world oil production patterns using hubbert-style curves,” Mathematical Geology, Vol. 132, No. 1, pp. 1-17.

[3] Forbes, K.F. and Zampelli, E.M., 2002, “Technology and the exploratory success rate in U.S. onshore,” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, No. 42, pp. 319-334.

[4] Factbook, 2013.10.20. www.cia.go.

[5] Greene, William H., 2000, Econometric Analysis, p. 223.

[6] Hopwood, W., McKeown, J.C. and Mutchler, J.F., 1994, “A Reexamination of Auditor versus Model Accuracy within the Context of Going-Concern Opinion Decision,” Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 409-431.

[7] IHS Herold, 2012, Global Upstream Performance Review.

[8] Kemp, A. and Kasim, S., 2003, “An Econometric Model of Oil and Gas Exploration Development and Production in the UK Continental Shelf: A Systems Approach,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 113-141.

[9] Kim, S.I., Yoon, H.J., Kim, M.C. and Kim, Y.J., 2009, Policy Measures to Encourage Package Deals Overseas : Bundling Construction Industry with Oil, Gas and Mineral Industry, KRIHS, Seoul, Korea, p. xii.

[10] Kim, G.D., Kim, T.H., Nam, G.G., Ma, S.Y., Shin, B.S., You, J.S., Youn, J.P., Lee, G.U., Lee, S.H., Jun, J.S., Choi, Y.H., Cha, C.H., Choi, J.W. and Hong, H.I., 2007, Modern Diplomatic Theory, Myungin Printing Co. Seoul, Korea, p. 48.

[11] Korea JoongAng Daily, 2013, National Assembly Inspection for Oil Corp., November, 1.

[12] Luo, D. and Na, Y., 2010, “Assessment of fiscal terms of international petroleum contracts,” Petroleum Exploration and Development, Vol. 37, Iss. 6, pp. 756-762.

[13] Michel, B., “Oil Production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve,” 2013.11.11, www.peakoil.net/files/Bertrand %20Michel%202010.pdf, pp. 1-33.

[14] Mohn, K. and Osmundsen, P., 2006, “Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum province: The case of the Norwegian Continental Shelf,” Energy Economics, Vol. 30, pp. 303-320.

[15] Moroney, J.R. and Berg, M.D., 1999, “An Integrated Model of Oil Production,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 105-124.

[16] Pindyck, R.S. and Rubinfeld, D.L., 1981, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, pp. 287-311.

[17] Quantitative Micro Software(QMS), 2007, EViews 6 User’s Guide II, LLC, November 12.

[18] Rao, R.D., 2000, “An integrated modelling framework for exploration and extration of petroleum resources,” Resources Policy, Vol. 26, pp. 133-143.

[19] Reiss, P.C., 1990, “Economics and Financial Determinants of Oil and Gas Exploration Activity,” the National Bureau of Economic Research, Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, University of Chicago Press, pp. 181-206.

[20] Seo, B.C. and Kim, K.W., 2011, “Analysis of Effect of Each Type of Fund Investment by Venture Capital,” J. of Enterpreneurship and Venture Capital, Vol. 14, No.1, pp. 69-88.

[21] Smith, J.L. and Paddock, J.L., 1984, “Regional modelling of oil discovery and production,” Energy Economics, January, pp. 5-13.

[22] Walls, M.A., 1994, “Using a Hybrid Approach to Model Oil and Gas Supply: A Case Study of the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf,” Land Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 1-19.

[23] wikipedia, “Geometric mean,” 2013.12.12., http://ko.wikipedia. org/wiki/.

[24] wikipedia, “Maximum likelihood,” 2013.12.12., http://ko. wikipedia.org/wiki/.

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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