A Study on the Estimation of CBM Resources Using Probabilistic Approach from Mongolian Coal Basin Information

doi:10.32390/ksmer.2013.50.5.678

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2013 Vol.50, Issue 5 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

A Study on the Estimation of CBM Resources Using Probabilistic Approach from Mongolian Coal Basin Information 몽골 석탄분지 정보로부터 확률론적 접근을 통한 석탄층 메탄가스의 자원량 산정 연구: 김영민·Unurbayan Budzaya·이정환
Youngmin Kim, Unurbayan Budzaya and Jeonghwan Lee

October 2013. pp. 678-691

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Abstract

Coalbed methane(CBM) is widely buried in the world and its total resources are reported about 2,896-9,704 TCF. Mongolia is expected to have a huge potential for CBM development because total coal resources in Mongolia are estimated to be at 152 billion tons. However, evaluation of CBM resources in Mongolia has not been performed because there is a lack of properties data of CBM except drilling cases in a few coal reservoir. For accurate estimation of Mongolia’s CBM resource, this study presents analysis of CBM potential from coal basin information. CBM resources is estimated by volumetric and material balance method using Monte Carlo simulation. Merge-sort algorithm is used to reduce uncertainty of the results by combining two different results into an integrated result to keep a consistency of them. Mongolia’s CBM resources were evaluated on 5 coal basins and its total reserves were estimated 12.5 TCF using the merge-sort algorithm.

Keywords

Coalbed Methane

Monte Carlo Simulation

Volumetric Method

Material Balance Method

Merge Sort Algorithm

석탄층 메탄가스(coalbed methane)는 전 세계적으로 광범위하게 매장되어 있을 것으로 예측되며, 총 자원량은 2,896-9,704 TCF 정도로 보고되고 있다. 몽골의 석탄자원은 약 1,520억 톤 정도 부존되어 있는 것으로 추정되며, 석탄 자원량이 풍부하여 CBM에 대한 자원 개발 잠재력이 클 것으로 기대되고 있다. 하지만 몽골은 몇몇 탄광에서의 시추를 제외하고는 CBM에 대한 여러 물성 자료가 부족하여 현재까지 CBM 자원량에 대한 정확한 평가가 이루어지지 않고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 몽골의 CBM 자원량을 보다 정확히 산정하기 위해 석탄분지 정보로부터 CBM 부존가능성을 분석하였고, 확률론적 접근 방법인 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 적용하여 부피법과 물질평형법으로 CBM 자원량을 산정하였다. 또한 합병정렬 알고리즘을 이용해 서로 다른 결과 값이 제시될 수 있는 이 두 가지 결과의 일관성을 유지하여 통합된 하나의 결과 값으로 제시함으로써 산출된 CBM 자원량에 대한 불확실성을 감소시켰다. 몽골의 총 5개 석탄분지에 대하여 CBM 자원량 평가를 실시하였으며, 합병정렬 알고리즘을 적용한 결과, P(50)기준으로 약 12.5 TCF로 산출되었다.

키워드

석탄층 메탄가스

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션

부피법

물질평형법

합병정렬 알고리즘

References

Aminian, K., Ameri, S. and Bhavsar, 2007, “Type Curve-Based Production Prediction Tool for CBM Prospects,” SPE Eastern Regional Meeting, Lexington, Kentuky, USA, Oct. 17-19. pp. 1-7.
Bhavsar, A.B., 2005, Prediction of Coalbed Methane Reservoir Performance with Type Curves, MS Thesis, Texas A&M University, USA.
Carlos, A.M., 2007, Comparison of Computation Methods for CBM Production Performance, MS Thesis, Texas A&M University, USA.
Charles, M.B. and Bai, Q.Z., 1998, “Methodology of Coalbed Methane Resources Assessment,” International J. of Coal Geology, Vol. 35, pp. 349-368.
Erdenetsogt, B., Lee, I.S., Bat-Erdene, D. and Jargal, L., 2009, “Mongolian Coal-bearing Basins: Geological Settings, Coal Characteristics, Distribution, and Resources,” International J. of Coal Geology, Vol. 80, pp. 87-104.
Huh, D. and Lee, J., 2010, “Unconventional Hydrocarbon Resources for the Next-generation Energy Era,” J. of the Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 975-984.
Jang, H., Lee, J., Shin, C., Lee, Y., Kwon, S. and Lee, W., 2012, “A Study on the Development Status and Key Technologies of Coalbed Methane,” J. of the Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 545-556.
King, G.R., 1993, “Material Balance Techniques for Coal Seam and Devonian Shale Gas Reservoir with Limited Water Influx,” The 65th Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Society of Petroleum Engineers, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, Sep. 23-26, pp. 181-192.
KOGAS, KIGAM, Eco-Frontier, Hanyang University, 2011, Development and Technology Application of Coalbed Methane in Mongolia, Report, Ministry of Knowledge Economy.
Masszi, D., 1991, “Cavity Stress-Relief Method for Recovering Methane from Coal Seams,” Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists, USA, pp. 149-154.
Park, J., Kwon, S., Song, D. and Kim, J., 2011, “A Study on the Parallel Method of Merge Sort Algorithm Using OpenMP,” Technical Conference, The Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences, Pyeongchang, Korea, Feb. 23-25, p. 433.
Reid, G.W., Towler, B.F. and Harris, H.G., 1992, “Simulation and Economics of Coalbed Methane Production in the Powder River Basin,” SPE Rocky Mountain Conference, Society of Petroleum Engineering, Casper, Wyoming, USA, May. 18-21, pp. 425-432.
Seidle, J.P., 1999, “A Modified p/Z Method for Coal Wells,” SPE Rocky Mountain Regional Meeting, Gillete, Wyoming, USA, May. 15-18, pp. 1-14.

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 50
No :5
Pages :678-691
DOI :https://doi.org/10.32390/ksmer.2013.50.5.678

[1] Aminian, K., Ameri, S. and Bhavsar, 2007, “Type Curve-Based Production Prediction Tool for CBM Prospects,” SPE Eastern Regional Meeting, Lexington, Kentuky, USA, Oct. 17-19. pp. 1-7.

[2] Bhavsar, A.B., 2005, Prediction of Coalbed Methane Reservoir Performance with Type Curves, MS Thesis, Texas A&M University, USA.

[3] Carlos, A.M., 2007, Comparison of Computation Methods for CBM Production Performance, MS Thesis, Texas A&M University, USA.

[4] Charles, M.B. and Bai, Q.Z., 1998, “Methodology of Coalbed Methane Resources Assessment,” International J. of Coal Geology, Vol. 35, pp. 349-368.

[5] Erdenetsogt, B., Lee, I.S., Bat-Erdene, D. and Jargal, L., 2009, “Mongolian Coal-bearing Basins: Geological Settings, Coal Characteristics, Distribution, and Resources,” International J. of Coal Geology, Vol. 80, pp. 87-104.

[6] Huh, D. and Lee, J., 2010, “Unconventional Hydrocarbon Resources for the Next-generation Energy Era,” J. of the Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 975-984.

[7] Jang, H., Lee, J., Shin, C., Lee, Y., Kwon, S. and Lee, W., 2012, “A Study on the Development Status and Key Technologies of Coalbed Methane,” J. of the Korean Society for Geosystem Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 545-556.

[8] King, G.R., 1993, “Material Balance Techniques for Coal Seam and Devonian Shale Gas Reservoir with Limited Water Influx,” The 65th Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Society of Petroleum Engineers, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, Sep. 23-26, pp. 181-192.

[9] KOGAS, KIGAM, Eco-Frontier, Hanyang University, 2011, Development and Technology Application of Coalbed Methane in Mongolia, Report, Ministry of Knowledge Economy.

[10] Masszi, D., 1991, “Cavity Stress-Relief Method for Recovering Methane from Coal Seams,” Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists, USA, pp. 149-154.

[11] Park, J., Kwon, S., Song, D. and Kim, J., 2011, “A Study on the Parallel Method of Merge Sort Algorithm Using OpenMP,” Technical Conference, The Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences, Pyeongchang, Korea, Feb. 23-25, p. 433.

[12] Reid, G.W., Towler, B.F. and Harris, H.G., 1992, “Simulation and Economics of Coalbed Methane Production in the Powder River Basin,” SPE Rocky Mountain Conference, Society of Petroleum Engineering, Casper, Wyoming, USA, May. 18-21, pp. 425-432.

[13] Seidle, J.P., 1999, “A Modified p/Z Method for Coal Wells,” SPE Rocky Mountain Regional Meeting, Gillete, Wyoming, USA, May. 15-18, pp. 1-14.

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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