Development and Application of the Visual Statistical-Two Phase Flow Decline Curve Analysis Model

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2008 Vol.45, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Development and Application of the Visual Statistical-Two Phase Flow Decline Curve Analysis Model 비주얼 통계적-2상유동 생산감퇴곡선 분석 모델 개발 및 응용: 이영수, 최진희, 최해원, 배재유, 장일식, 김지영, 성원모
Young-Soo Lee, Jin-Hee Choi, Hae-Won Choi, Jae-Yu Bae, Il-Sik Jang, Ji-Yeong Kim and Won-Mo Sung

31 December 2008. pp. 610-619

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Abstract

In this study, the visual integrated model that is available to predict the future productivity of production well has been developed. This model which is based on conventional decline curve analysis method is for two phase decline curve analysis. This model is composed of three modules. First one is a decline type curve module that can analyze reservoir characteristics such as permeability, skin factor et al. using transient production data. The second is statistical-decline curve module which is able to predict productivity with high confidence level by using production data in depletion stage. The third one is the two phase (oil-water) decline curve module for the future performance of high WOR well. For the utilization of these modules, a user-friendly visual model of the integrated decline curve analysis was developed in this study. In order to validate the developed model, the decline curve analysis on the production data containing large amount of water in SES producing oil field, Indonesia, was carried out. As a results, in case of the well showing a conventional decline curve trend, more reliable prediction could be obtained through the statistical decline curve analysis module. In the analysis of the well producing large amount of water in waterflooded reservoir, the result of decline curve analysis based on two phase flow shows relatively excellent producing performances even though the enhanced production data is not included in the analysis. Also, the radius of investigation, permeability and skin factor at both transient and depletion stage were calculated from the model. It is found that the matching result between actual data and type curves is correct.

Keywords

Decline curve

Decline type curve

Two phase flow decline curve

Visual integrated model

본 연구에서는 생산유정의 향후 생산성을 예측하는 생산감퇴곡선 분석기법을 기반으로 통계적 2상유동생산감퇴곡선 분석 모델을 개발하였다. 본 모델은 생산초기의 천이유동 자료를 이용하여 투과도와 유정손상지수 등의 저류층 특성을 규명할 수 있는 표준감퇴곡선 분석기법 모듈과, 생산운영조건의 변화로 인한 예측생산량의 불확실성을 보완하기 위해 결정론적 예측값에 최대, 최소값을 제시할 수 있는 통계적 분석기법을 개발하였다. 또한 물이 다량 생산되는 유정의 생산성 분석을 위해 물-오일 2상유동 분석 모듈을 개발하였고, 상기의 모듈을 통합하여 사용자 친화적 비주얼 모델을 개발하였다. 본 모델의 적용성 검증을 위해 물 생산량이 많은 인도네시아 SES 유전의 생산자료를 분석하였다. 그 결과, 일반적인 감퇴경향을 보이는 유정의 경우 통계적 생산감퇴곡선 분석 모듈을 이용하였을 때 양호한 예측 결과를 얻을 수 있었고, 수공법 등의 적용으로 물 생산량이 많은 유정일 경우에는 2상유동 생산감퇴곡선 분석 모듈을 사용하였을 때 실제 생산거동과 보다 유사한 경향을 보임을 알 수 있었다. 또한 표준감퇴곡선 분석 모듈을 통해 천이유동단계에서 유효영향반경과 저류층의 투과도 및 유정손상지수를 산출할 수 있었고, 생산감퇴 단계에서 실제 생산자료와 표준곡선의 매칭이 잘 이루어짐을 확인할 수 있었다.

키워드

생산감퇴곡선

표준감퇴곡선

2상유동 생산감퇴곡선

비주얼 통합모델

References

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