Economic Analysis of Canadian Oil Sands Projects at Different Participation Timings Considering the Oil Price Cycle

Heesung Kong; Namhwa Kim; Hyundon Shin

doi:10.32390/ksmer.2024.61.3.191

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2024 Vol.61, Issue 3S Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper (Special Issue)

Economic Analysis of Canadian Oil Sands Projects at Different Participation Timings Considering the Oil Price Cycle 유가 변동 주기를 고려한 캐나다 오일샌드 사업의 참여 시점별 경제성 분석

30 June 2024. pp. 191-198

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Abstract

Oil field development projects take a long time from exploration to production; therefore, considering the long-term oil price cycle is crucial for maximizing economic feasibility. This study constructed an oil sands development plan and an oil price model, then conducted an economic analysis of various participation timings. The results showed that participation in an oil price rising period maximized economic feasibility, and participation at the end of the low oil price period also showed high feasibility. Conversely, participation in a high oil price period or falling period demonstrated lower feasibility. Therefore, participation in a low oil price period while ramping up production during a high price period maximizes economic feasibility. This approach is applicable to both oil sands and conventional oil development projects with long lead times, highlighting the importance of economic analysis that considers the long-term oil price cycle.

Keywords

oil price cycle

economic analysis

oil field development

oil sands

유전 개발사업은 탐사부터 생산에 이르기까지 오랜 기간이 소요되므로, 경제성 최대화를 위해 유가 변동 주기를 고려하여 개발 참여 시점을 결정해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 장기적인 유가 변동을 고려하여 오일샌드 개발사업의 적절한 참여 시점을 결정하기 위해 오일샌드 광구 개발 계획과 유가 변동 모델을 구성하고 다양한 참여 시점을 가정하여 경제성 분석을 수행하였다. 연구 결과, 유가 상승기에 참여하는 경우에 경제성이 최대화되었고, 저유가 시기에 개발을 시작하여 고유가 시기에 생산을 본격화하는 경우도 높은 경제성을 보였다. 반면, 고유가 시기와 유가 하락기에 참여한 경우는 낮은 경제성을 보였다. 따라서, 저유가 시기에 개발을 시작하여 유가 상승기에 생산을 본격화하는 전략이 경제성을 최대화하는 데 유리하다. 이 연구는 오일샌드 개발뿐만 아니라 리드타임이 긴 전통석유자원 개발에서도 유사한 과정이 적용될 수 있음을 시사하며, 유가 변동 주기를 고려한 개발사업의 참여 시점이 사업의 경제성에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 확인하였다.

키워드

유가 변동 주기

경제성 분석

유전 개발사업

오일샌드

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 61
No :3
Pages :191-198
Received Date : 2024-05-22
Revised Date : 2024-06-14
Accepted Date : 2024-06-19
DOI :https://doi.org/10.32390/ksmer.2024.61.3.191

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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